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The first stage of Donald Trump's Middle East plan has provoked a collective sense of relief among European leaders. Following 24 months of bloodshed, the truce, hostage releases, limited IDF pullback, and aid delivery offer hope – yet regrettably, create an excuse for European nations to continue inaction.

Europe's Problematic Position on the Gaza Conflict

When it comes to the Gaza conflict, unlike Russia's invasion in Ukraine, European governments have revealed their worst colours. They are divided, leading to policy paralysis. But worse than inaction is the accusation of collusion in violations of international law. European institutions have refused to apply leverage on those responsible while maintaining commercial, diplomatic, and military cooperation.

Israel's violations have triggered mass outrage among European citizens, yet EU governments have lost touch with their own people, particularly younger generations. In 2020, the EU spearheaded the climate agenda, responding to youth demands. Those same young people are now appalled by their government's passivity over Gaza.

Belated Recognition and Ineffective Measures

It took two years of a war that numerous observers call a atrocity for several European nations including France, Britain, Portugal, Belgium, Luxembourg and Malta to recognise the State of Palestine, following other European nations' lead from the previous year.

Just last month did the EU executive propose the initial cautious punitive measures toward Israel, including sanctioning radical officials and violent settlers, plus halting European trade benefits. Nevertheless, both measures have been implemented. The first requires complete consensus among all member states – unlikely given fierce resistance from nations including Hungary and the Czech Republic. The second could pass with a supermajority, but Germany and Italy's opposition have made it meaningless.

Divergent Approaches and Lost Trust

This summer, the EU found that Israel had breached its human rights commitments under the EU-Israel association agreement. But recently, the EU's foreign policy chief paused efforts to revoke the agreement's trade privileges. The contrast with the EU's 19 packages of sanctions on Russia could not be more pronounced. On Ukraine, Europe has stood tall for democracy and international law; on Gaza, it has damaged its credibility in the eyes of the world.

Trump's Plan as an Escape Route

Now, Trump's plan has provided Europe with an escape route. It has allowed EU nations to embrace Washington's demands, similar to their approach on Ukraine, defense, and trade. It has enabled them to promote a new dawn of peace in the Middle East, shifting attention from punitive measures toward backing for the US plan.

The EU has retreated into its comfort zone of playing second fiddle to the United States. While Middle Eastern nations are expected to bear responsibility for an peacekeeping mission in Gaza, European governments are lining up to contribute with aid, reconstruction, administrative help, and border monitoring. Discussion of pressure on Israel has virtually disappeared.

Implementation Challenges and Political Realities

This situation is comprehensible. Trump's plan is the sole existing proposal and undoubtedly the only plan with any chance, however small, of success. This is not because to the intrinsic value of the proposal, which is flawed at best. It is rather because the United States is the sole actor with necessary leverage over Israel to alter behavior. Supporting US diplomacy is therefore not just convenient for Europeans, it is logical too.

Nevertheless, implementing the plan after its first phase is easier said than done. Numerous hurdles and catch-22s exist. Israel is improbable to fully pull out from Gaza unless Hamas lays down weapons. But Hamas will not disarm completely unless Israel departs.

What Lies Ahead and Necessary Steps

This initiative aims to move toward local administration, first involving Palestinian technocrats and then a "reformed" Palestinian Authority. But administrative reform means vastly distinct things to the US, Europe, Arab nations, and the Palestinians themselves. Israel opposes this entity altogether and, with it, the idea of a independent Palestine.

Israel's leadership has been explicitly clear in restating its unchanged aim – the destruction of Hamas – and has studiously avoided addressing an conflict resolution. It has not fully respected the ceasefire: since it began, dozens of non-combatants have been killed by IDF operations, while others have been shot by Hamas.

Unless the global community, and particularly the Americans and Europeans, apply more leverage on Israel, the likelihood exists that widespread conflict will restart, and Gaza – as well as the West Bank – will remain under occupation. In short, the outstanding elements of the initiative will not see the light of day.

Final Analysis

Therefore European leaders are mistaken to view support for Trump's plan and leveraging Israel as separate or contradictory. It is expedient but factually wrong to view the former as part of the paradigm of peace and the second to one of continuing war. This is not the time for the EU and its member states to feel let off the hook, or to discard the first timid moves toward punitive measures and conditionality.

Pressure applied to Israel is the sole method to surmount diplomatic obstacles, and if this is achieved, Europe can finally make a modest – but constructive, at least – contribution to peace in the Middle East.