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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a international match.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.